Heat to intensify in West this weekend, fueling rising fire danger (2024)

Triple-digit temperatures are about to bake large parts of the West, from Washington state to New Mexico, challenging records and exacerbating the wildfire risk. Nearly 60 large wildfires are already burning across the West, and the combination of hot temperatures and low humidity will allow blazes to run rampant throughout the weekend.

Heat alerts affecting more than 35 million people plaster weather maps, with excessive-heat warnings for interior Southern California, southwest Arizona and southern Nevada. That’s where temperatures could soar above 115 degrees.

Warnings are also in effect for the inland deserts of Oregon and Washington, where highs could reach 100 to 110 degrees. Triple digits are also possible into portions of northern and western Idaho, including the Columbia River Basin — a popular summertime hiking destination. Even a sliver of northwest Montana is under heat alerts.

“Heat will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially those without effective cooling or adequate hydration,” the National Weather Service wrote.

The dry heat will affect anyone outdoors and pose a danger of rapid dehydration. Similarly, vegetation will be sapped of moisture, making more fuel for wildfires to gobble up.

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The hot temperatures and lack of moisture could help ongoing fires expand. A few dry thunderstorms — thunderstorms that spit out lightning strikes but whose rain evaporates before reaching the ground — are expected to spark new fires, too, particularly in southern Idaho and northern Nebraska.

The excessive heat is courtesy of a heat dome, or a sprawling ridge of high pressure, that brings hot, sinking air. This latest round of heat follows a scorching two-week stretch to open July in which hundreds of records were set from Washington state to Arizona. Las Vegas as well as Redding and Palm Springs in California set all-time highs of around 120 degrees.

How hot it will get

The heat will ramp up Saturday, with triple-digit temperatures spreading over the majority of the West. Then it will peak Monday and Tuesday before gradually easing. Numerous calendar-day records will probably be tied or broken.

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Saturday

  • Needles, Calif. — on the Arizona border — is forecast to hit 119 degrees, tying a record set last year. Records date to 1888.
  • Las Vegas is expected to tie a record of 113 degrees. Records date to 1937.
  • Mount Shasta in Northern California is expected to hit 101 degrees, beating a record of 99 set in 2013. Records date to 1948.

Sunday

  • Las Vegas is expected to hit 114 degrees, exceeding the record set last year.
  • Boise, Idaho, is anticipated to hit 106, falling just shy of the 107-degree record set in 2005. Records date to 1875.
  • In Yakima, Wash., the Weather Service is forecasting a high of 107, blowing far past the record of 102 set in 2020. Records date to 1946.
  • Omak, a small town in extreme-northern Washington, is likely to approach 110 degrees. The record stands at 105 degrees, set in 1938. Data dates to 1909.
  • Spokane, Wash., is expected to hit 107. The record of 103 was set in 1905. Records date to 1881.

Monday

  • Palmdale, north of Los Angeles, is expected to hit 110 degrees. That surpasses a record of 109 set last year. Records date to 1931.
  • Mount Shasta in California is likely to hit 97 degrees, tying a record set in 2003.
  • Boise will probably fall just shy of the record of 108, set last year.
  • Yakima is forecast to hit 102, also falling just short of the record of 103.
  • Spokane will flirt with the record of 103.

Temperatures will remain elevated, but fall shy of records, into the midweek period.

Wildfire risk

The West’s fire season has taken off amid the relentless heat, and firefighting resources are strained.

Fifty-nine large wildfires are burning across the West, including 14 in Oregon, 11 in California, 8 in Montana, 7 in New Mexico and 5 each in Utah, Arizona and Washington.

On Thursday, the National Interagency Fire Center raised the national preparedness level to a 5 out of 5, signaling a serious drawdown on firefighting personnel and equipment.

“Significant wildland fire activity is now occurring in most geographic areas with a high potential for additional large wildland fires to emerge,” the center wrote in an update on Thursday.

Only four other years have reached preparedness level 5 this early in the season — 2002, 2007, 2008 and 2021 — according to records going back to 1990.

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An outbreak of dry lightning this past week escalated the fire situation out West, coming on the heels of the historic heat wave that left the landscape parched.

Oregon saw a flurry of wildfire ignitions over the last few days, even as several major blazes burned in the state, including the Falls Fire at more than 110,000 acres.

In California, more than 9,000 lightning strikes ignited 51 fires between Sunday and Tuesday. Several of those have taken hold, including the Trout Fire, which is burning intensely in the Sequoia National Forest in the southern Sierra.

“Lightning really has the potential to make an average or busy season into an exceptionally busy season because it can be so widespread in such a short amount of time,” said Stanton Florea, a spokesperson for the National Interagency Fire Center.

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More dry lighting is in the forecast for the coming days for the Pacific Northwest and California. And several states face above-normal fire risk into autumn.

“We know this isn’t going to end soon, so we could have eight to 10 weeks or longer of a high level of fire activity across the U.S.,” Florea said.

The heat is especially challenging for firefighters, who face long hours of grueling work outdoors.

Heat to intensify in West this weekend, fueling rising fire danger (2024)

FAQs

At what stage is the heat too intense to approach the fire? ›

Fully Developed Stage

At this point it has consumed all available fuel and oxygen. It's characterized by large flames and thick, black smoke. The fully developed stage presents the greatest danger in terms of heat damage and structural collapse.

Under what weather condition is fire more likely to spread rapidly? ›

In general, the higher the wind speed and lower the humidity, the greater the potential and intensity of fires. Windy conditions will help in spreading the fire, while lower humidity will quickly dry out vegetation such as leaves and branches making wildfires easier to ignite and harder to contain.

What weather factor has the greatest impact on fire behavior? ›

Weather conditions such as wind, temperature, and humidity also contribute to fire behavior. Wind is one of the most important factors because it can bring a fresh supply of oxygen to the fire and push the fire toward a new fuel source.

Are there other places where it is getting hotter and more fires are happening? ›

Areas in Southern California, New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona have experienced some of the greatest increases in annual fire weather days, with some areas now seeing around two more months of fire weather compared to a half century ago.

What are the 4 stages of fire intensity? ›

Compartment fire development can be described as being comprised of four stages: incipient, growth, fully developed and decay (see Figure 1). Flashover is not a stage of development, but simply a rapid transition between the growth and fully developed stages. Figure 1.

What is the hottest phase of a fire? ›

3) Fully Developed (Transition): As more fuel becomes consumed, the fire moves into a fully developed state. This is the most dangerous phase of a fire, and the hottest. At the peak of combustion, once all the material has been ignited, the fire begins its downward spiral.

What two weather factors influence fire behavior the most? ›

Wind increases the supply of oxygen to the fire. Wind dries fuels, and also influences the direction and speed at which a fire spreads. Wind can carry embers ahead of the main fire causing new spot fires. Rising temperatures result in higher heat and decreasing relative humidity and fuel moisture.

At which stage of fire growth do most fire deaths occur? ›

The second or growth stage of fire is the most dangerous because of its volatility. This second or growth stage has many potential killers — flashover, rollover, flameover, toxic smoke, heat and explosion — growing with the flames, ready to strike at any time.

What three things does a fire need to spark? ›

The fire triangle is a simple model that explains what elements need to be present for a fire to ignite and burn. It consists of three elements: heat, fuel, and oxygen.

In which type of fuel will a fire spread the most rapidly? ›

Flash Fuels: fuels such as grass, leaves, draped pine needles, fern, tree moss, and some kinds of slash that ignite readily and are consumed rapidly when dry. (Also called fine fuels.)

What part of a ground cover fire spreads the most rapidly? ›

The head is the fastest spreading part of a fire's perimeter. The head is usually the side toward which the wind is blowing, and will also often be the upslope side of a fire.

What humidity is fire danger? ›

A "Red Flag Alert" is called when the wind speed is 25 miles per hour or more and the relative humidity is 15% or less.

Why are there more fires in the West? ›

A wet winter and spring, which allowed vegetation to grow quickly, followed by record-breaking heat across much of the West have led to textbook fire-burning conditions, experts said. Climate change has been making heat waves in the region more intense and longer.

What US state gets the most fires? ›

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, Texas leads the country with the most wildfires and Alaska leads the county with the most acres burned. California-specific charts below on the Top 10 largest, most destructive, and deadliest wildfires.

What is causing the extreme heat in the US? ›

Climate change • Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.

During which stage of fire development will the heat release rate reach its peak? ›

After the flashover, the fire reaches the fully developed stage. Out of all the stages of fire growth, this phase is where energy release is at its greatest. The temperature will be at its highest point (generally somewhere between 700°-1200°C).

At which stage of a fire is it most difficult to extinguish? ›

Stage Three – Fully Developed

A fully developed fire is the hardest to suppress because, at this point, the fire is at maximum temperatures and causing the most heat damage. If you've failed to suppress it before this point, then your odds of stopping the fire are much smaller.

What is Stage 3 of a fire? ›

Traditional Fire growth in a room can be divided into three distinct stages: the growth stage (incipient), the fully developed stage (free-burning), and the decay stage (smoldering). fire that involves the entire room.

What phase of burning or stage of fire that has the highest rate of intensity? ›

The fully developed stage occurs when the maximum amount of fuel and oxidizers are consumed, and the highest heat release rate is produced.

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