To qualify as a fantasy football sleeper for this piece, a player must have an average draft position (ADP) of 120 or later at Underdog and DraftKings. Two of the three highlighted wideouts in this piece are second-year pros, and the other is a veteran who thrived after securing the No. 3 role in an explosive offense late last season. Here are three fantasy football wide receiver sleepers to draft in 2024.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers
Dontayvion Wicks (GB – WR): 121.9 Underdog ADP/135.3 DraftKings ADP
This isn’t the first time I’ve sung the praises of Dontayvion Wicks. In late February, I called him a draft value. He had an Underdog pre-NFL Draft ADP of 132.1, and it’s nearly a round earlier now. Wicks had a promising rookie season. Among Green Bay’s four wide receivers targeted at least 40 times in 2023, Wicks had the highest Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade (77.0) and the second-most yards per route run (1.94 Y/RR versus 1.95 Y/RR for Jayden Reed). Wicks’s PFF receiving grade and yards per route run were better than Romeo Doubs‘s marks in either of his two seasons in the NFL, and they bested Christian Watson‘s in 2023, albeit fell short of Watson’s 77.8 receiving grade and 2.26 Y/RR in 2022.
Wicks has alignment versatility, too. Per PFF, he had a 35.7% slot rate and a 63.4% wide rate. Reed lived in the slot, with a 75.2% slot rate. Doubs was glued to the perimeter, with an 84.3% wide rate and only a 15.7% slot rate. Finally, Watson’s rates (63.6% wide and 34.2% slot) were nearly identical to Wicks’s. Bo Melton had fewer than 40 targets and didn’t make the cut, but he can also force his way into the rotation.
Still, Wicks’s worst-case scenario should be a minor rotational role with a weekly low floor but a high ceiling. He could overtake Doubs on the depth chart, though. Moreover, Wicks has the upside of being a fixture in three-wideout sets if Reed, Doubs or oft-injured Watson miss any games. Nico Collins was seemingly universally beloved by pundits as a sleeper before his breakout 2023 campaign, and Wicks is a justifiably popular sleeper this year. Even though Wicks’s ADP is climbing, he’s still a bargain at Underdog and DraftKings.
Josh Downs (IND – WR): 130.8 Underdog ADP/144.5 DraftKings ADP
Josh Downs had an underrated rookie season. Among 16 rookie wideouts with at least 40 targets (including the postseason), Downs had PFF’s eighth-highest receiving grade (71.0) and the eighth-most yards per route run (1.60 Y/RR), directly ahead of Jordan Addison. Addison’s PFF receiving grade was 69.7, and he had 1.50 Y/RR. Sure, it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison because Downs had an 81.3% slot rate versus 28.8% for Addison. Still, the lack of hype for Downs relative to Addison is baffling.
Downs wasn’t a Mickey Mouse slot, either. Per PFF, Downs had a 7.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT), nine receptions on 14 targets between 10 and 19 yards downfield and five receptions on 11 targets 20-plus yards downfield. He’s also at less risk of leaving the field than many wideouts primarily aligned in the slot.
According to Sumer Sports, the Colts had the third-highest 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) rate (77%) in 2023. Head coach Shane Steichen also ran a fast-paced offense. According to RotoViz’s pace app, Indianapolis was tied for the ninth-fastest situation-neutral pace. They also had a 54% situation-neutral pass rate. Furthermore, the Colts played faster and had a higher situation-neutral pass rate (59%) before Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Downs is the rare second-year wide receiver who’s cheap in drafts after flashing potential in their rookie season.
Demarcus Robinson (LAR – WR): 177.4 Underdog ADP/193.5 DraftKings Underdog
I’m enamored with Demarcus Robinson as a late-round dart. However, I must tip my cap to Underdog’s Josh Norris for driving the bandwagon and repeatedly stressing to the Underdog Fantasy Football podcast listeners to soak up D-Rob’s value. They’ve listened. Robinson had a 210.9 ADP in pre-NFL Draft Underdog drafts on April 21 and a 203.1 ADP on May 4. Nevertheless, he’s still underpriced and belongs in the same range as Jermaine Burton (149.8 Underdog ADP and 163.39 DraftKings ADP) and Quentin Johnston (148.9 ADP and 148.95 ADP). Even if he’s Cincinnati’s locked-in No. 3 wide receiver, Burton will be behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at best, ala Robinson behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Yet, Robinson has already demonstrated how well he can perform as the No. 3 receiver in a potent passing attack.
The Rams attempted to make Tutu Atwell something in the offense through their first 10 games last year, including their first game after their bye in Week 10. Robinson was buried on the depth chart and didn’t exceed a 10% snap rate until Week 12. He had a 60% snap rate in Week 12, 59% in Week 13 and was a mainstay on the field in Week 14 through Week 17 before dipping to a 39% snap share in a meaningless contest in Week 18. In LA’s loss in the Wild Card Round, Robinson’s 35 routes were tied for the team-high with Kupp and two more than Nacua ran. Thus, Robinson was the unchallenged No. 3 wide receiver in LA’s final five meaningful games.
In that span, he ran the second-most routes (185) on the team. He was targeted on 18.9% of his 185 routes and had 20 receptions (4.0 per game), 308 receiving yards (61.6 per game), 1.66 Y/RR, a 15.5-yard aDOT and three receiving touchdowns.
The Rams didn’t make any significant splashes in the offseason to upgrade at wide receiver, and their running backs and tight ends aren’t imposing pass-catching options. In addition, LA’s 93.1% 11-personnel rate was the highest in the NFL last year, and Carolina’s 88% mark was the only other above 80%. In other words, not all No. 3 wideout roles are created equal, and Robinson’s is the cream of the crop since he’s essentially a full-time player. Gamers shouldn’t limit themselves to drafting Robinson only as a stacking option. He’s also an excellent one-off pick at his steal of an ADP.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
More Articles
Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Team: Deep League (2024) by Josh Shepardson | 4 min read Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet: DBro’s Picks (2024) by Derek Brown | 2 min read 6 Fantasy Football Duds That Will Become Studs (2024) by John Supowitz | 2 min read Fantasy Football Mock Draft: PPR, Early Pick (2024) by Mike Fanelli | 4 min read
Josh is a savvy, grizzled veteran in the realm of make-believe sports. He's thoroughly experienced playing in season-long re-draft leagues, keeper formats and daily games. His fantasy advice for baseball and football has been found at many locations around the internet. He's finished in the top 10 accuracy scores among experts here, at Fantasy Pros, in three of four years competing with his colleagues including a first-place finish in 2012.
